Peotone Weather

National Weather Service Forecast for: Peotone IL Issued by: National Weather Service Chicago, IL

Updated: 7:16 pm CST Dec 9, 2018

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Peotone, IL

Tonight Partly Cloudy Monday Becoming Sunny Monday Night Mostly Clear Tuesday Mostly Sunny Tuesday Night Partly Cloudy Wednesday Slight Chance Rain then Chance Rain/Snow Wednesday Night Chance Rain/Snow then Mostly Cloudy Thursday Mostly Cloudy then Slight Chance Rain Thursday Night Chance Rain/Snow then Chance Snow Lo 17 °F Hi 33 °F Lo 22 °F Hi 39 °F Lo 27 °F Hi 39 °F Lo 31 °F Hi 40 °F Lo 31 °F

Forecast from NOAA-NWS for Peotone IL.

000
FXUS63 KLOT 092353
AFDLOT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Chicago/Romeoville, IL
553 PM CST Sun Dec 9 2018

.SHORT TERM...
219 PM CST

Through Monday...

Main concern for the short term forecast period will be cloud cover,
especially for tonight, and impacts on temperature trends.

High pressure sliding through the Central Plains and spreading
across the Middle Mississippi Valley continues to be the main
feature of significance impacting the local weather.  Have been
monitoring an area of stratus over srn WI and spilling just south of
the border into nrn IL.  Earlier thoughts had the area of stratus
sliding south and overspreading nrn IL through the evening hours.
Earlier satellite trends suggested this idea, though the leading
edge had been eroding almost as fast as the stratus deck was
translating south.  Latest couple hours of high res satellite
imagery shows the area of cloud cover to be eroding in place from
all sides and is no longer moving south at all.  The model guidance
has been spectacularly poor in handling the thin stratus cloud cover
for the past several days and the latest runs continue this trend.
So, the cloud cover forecast and impacts on temperatures remains a
source of uncertainty and contributes to some bust potential for
overnight lows as well as highs tomorrow.  Current min temp forecast
tonight, with lows in the middle teens to arnd 20 F was, in part,
based on cloud cover expected to be fairly extensive.  With high
pressure remaining over the region, winds overnight and into
tomorrow morning should be lgt/vrbl, which could set up an enhanced
radiational cooling situation should skies remain mostly clear.  In
this case, the min temp forecast could be too high, especially away
from the Chicago area urban heat island.  For tomorrow, expect dry
conditions with temperatures close to those observed this afternoon.
However, if cloud cover is low through the day, there is a chance
that temps tomorrow could be a little higher than the the lower to
middle 30s currently forecast. Stay tuned for possible updates.

&&

.LONG TERM...
212 PM CST

Monday night through Sunday...

Surface ridge axis will settle to our south Monday night into
Tuesday, stretching from the lower Mississippi Valley to the upper
Ohio Valley. Southwest flow will allow temperatures to continue to
moderate with afternoon highs around 40F on Tuesday and
continuing into Wednesday. Meanwhile, precip chances increase
through the day Wednesday as Pacific shortwave trough/clipper
translates east across the northern Great Plains and into the
Upper Midwest. Model differences persist with respect to the
evolution of this wave. GFS keeps the wave open while
NAM/ECMWF/GEM close off the low at 500mb. Either way, mid level
warm air advection will overspread the CWA through the latter half
of the day Wednesday resulting in gradual top down saturation of
very dry antecedent air mass. Forecast sounding show deep
isothermal layer near the 0Z isotherm indicating that p-type will
be a concern during this event, though model differences at this
distance remain too large to have much confidence in details. For
now, will continue to mention a mixture of rain and snow at times.

Another deeper low is progged to dig across the mid section of the
country late in the week. While this system certainly has the
potential to bring much more impactful weather to the region,
there remain very large differences in the track and strength of
this system between the various model solutions. ECMWF has for
several runs now indicated a southerly low track that hugs the
Gulf Coast while other models, including the GFS, lift the low
across the Midwest bringing the possibility of accumulating snow
locally. GEFS also indicates considerable spread with individual
members supporting both the southerly ECMWF solution and the
northerly GFS solution. For the forecast, did not deviate from a
consensus blend, so expect changes, possibly large, in the coming
days as models hopefully begin to converge on a favored track.

BMD

&&

.AVIATION...
For the 00Z TAFs...

Dry weather and relatively lighter winds will continue this
forecast period, along with challenges with low clouds and fog
this evening through Monday morning. Latest satellite imagery
showing a small area of IFR ceilings slowly drifting south through
portions of northern IL. This will likely hold together and
initially maintain the same coverage area as it continues south
over the next few hours. Do think a period of IFR ceilings are
likely for RFD and DPA, with the other terminals missing this
initial cloud cover. ORD may briefly see the eastern edge of these
IFR clouds this evening and will continue to monitor trends. After
these clouds move through this evening, there may be some clearer
skies but am monitoring the expansion of these clouds across much
of northern IL and northwest IN. It is appearing possible, but
with confidence low, have not completely trended this way for the
terminals. The exception is RFD where confidence is higher for
these IFR ceilings to remain tonight. Along with these clouds,
lower vis in fog could become an issue. Once again, will continue
to monitor trends and update as necessary.

Rodriguez

&&

.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
IN...None.
LM...None.
&&

$$

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NWS LOT Office Area Forecast Discussion