Peotone Weather

National Weather Service Forecast for: Peotone, IL Issued by: National Weather Service Chicago/Romeoville, IL

Updated: Mon, 18-Jun-2018 8:16am CDT

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Peotone, IL

Today Mostly Sunny then Slight Chance Showers And T-Storms Tuesday Showers And T-Storms Likely Wednesday Chance Showers And T-Storms Thursday Mostly Cloudy then Chance Showers And T-Storms Friday Chance Showers And T-Storms Saturday Chance Showers And T-Storms Sunday Chance Showers And T-Storms   Hi 93 °F Hi 84 °F ↓ Hi 80 °F Hi 80 °F Hi 79 °F Hi 81 °F Hi 83 °F     Tonight Showers And T-Storms Likely Tuesday Night Showers And T-Storms Likely Wednesday Night Chance Showers And T-Storms then Mostly Cloudy Thursday Night Chance Showers And T-Storms Friday Night Showers And T-Storms Likely Saturday Night Chance Showers And T-Storms then Partly Cloudy Sunday Night Chance Showers And T-Storms   Lo 68 °F Lo 66 °F Lo 62 °F Lo 63 °F Lo 64 °F Lo 64 °F Lo 66 °F

Heat Advisory
 

Forecast from NOAA-NWS for Peotone, IL.

426
FXUS63 KLOT 181130
AFDLOT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Chicago/Romeoville, IL
630 AM CDT Mon Jun 18 2018

.SHORT TERM...
257 AM CDT

Through tonight...

It is another muggy night across the midwest, with area wide
dewpoints in the low to mid 70s, and the heat concerns will continue
today for some areas. The deep layer atmosphere is also still quite
moist across the region, with upstream upper air observations near
Omaha and Minneapolis holding at 2"+ Precipitable water values. The
ring of fire is solidly in place to our north with a deep closed
trough in the west, and high pressure across our vicinity and to
our southeast. Signs of this breaking down are becoming evident on
water vapor with continued shortwave activity in the southwest
flow around the ridge and a gradual southern shift the cloud and
precip shield. It is this stout low level flow south of the lower
level frontal boundary which is currently up across Minnesota and
northern Wisconsin feeding that moisture up to the front. Our
concern will be the area of thunderstorms being driven by those
aforementioned mechanisms that may get close to the area along
with more development of storms later today along and ahead of the
front.

With the atmosphere extremely moist (near or at the top of
climatological norms) concerns for very heavy rainfall increase
significantly. The storms along the front, while wanting to shift
southward per light corfidi vectors, may not be quite so fast moving
given the modest wind form the southwest feeding into the front.
Therefore we do expect an east-west oriented band of storms which
given the airmass could be trouble, but it is not clear if this
will setup over southern Wisconsin before decaying somewhat over
our area, or if northern Illinois gets in the crosshairs.
Certainly and issue for the day shift to get a close look at.
Before the main storm redevelopment, moisture pooling ahead of
the front will still allow heat indices to reach uncomfortable
levels in the upper 90s to lower 100s, and the heat advisory and
excessive heat warnings for cumulative effects will remain.

Convection will again initiate along the northern periphery of the
ridge with peak heating time. The problem is there is some
disagreement as to where the main axis convection will initiate with
the front this afternoon, whether it is north our south of the
Wisconsin border, and this will be predicated on any outflows from
the overnight or morning activity. The propensity of the evidence
would suggest southern WI may be the better organized initiation
zone, with more airmass driven isolated or widely scattered
development across our area just due to instability and weak forcing
otherwise, as the gusty low level sw flow will maintain our unstable
atmosphere. The front, whether it gets an earlier surge from
convection, which then could aid in a lake breeze to develop,
will eventually get a better surge through the evening. It is this
latter time frame that appears that our area stands a better
chance of thunderstorms. Gusty winds may accompany these storms
along with heavy rain. Confidence on specific timing of storms and
coverage is only medium.

KMD

&&

.LONG TERM...
248 AM CDT

Tuesday through Sunday...

The front never quite clears the area, and therefore a good portion
of the region will remain in the warm and moist sector of the
incoming system. It will still be warm and muggy for the warm
sector. Meanwhile to the north of the front, much cooler
northeast winds may be accompanied by stratus. With the upper
ridge breaking down, the ring of fire wave train becomes pointed
across northern IL and northwest IN yet again. Expect that the
next upper wave will then arrive on Tuesday afternoon and the
stronger westerly flow will encounter a moderately unstable
atmosphere Tuesday afternoon, setting the state for another round
of potential heavy rainfall, and a non zero severe threat for
areas along and south of where the front ends up.

Weak ridging in wake of this wave should help to shift the front
closer to central Illinois, though it is not clear that it will
clear the entire area, therefore will have some lower PoPs south of
I-80 Weds. Upper ridging will build in ahead of the west coast upper
trough, and this trough will be knocking on our door step mid to
late week. Things will get a bit more again later in the week as
cutoff upper low across the plains slowly drives on through. More
seasonal temperatures are in store.

KMD

&&

.CLIMATE...

Here are the standing records for Chicago and Rockford:

                   Chicago      Rockford

Mon Jun 18  High  98 (1954)    99 (1994)
            Low   77 (1921)    74 (1905)

&&

.AVIATION...
For the 12Z TAFs...

630 am...Forecast concerns remain thunderstorm timing and cold
front/wind shift timing late this afternoon/early this evening.

Southwest winds 10-15kts with gusts to 20kts will continue into
this afternoon as they slowly become more westerly.

A cold front will move south across the terminals by early this
evening shifting winds to the northeast. This cold front may be
pushed south faster by thunderstorms across southern WI today...
faster than guidance is currently showing. Maintained 00z timing
into ord/mdw as this remains a consensus compromise...but timing
will likely require some tweaks with later forecasts. Winds will
then remain east/northeast overnight into Tuesday morning.

There is a small chance for an isolated shower or thunderstorm
today but the better chance for thunderstorms will be just behind
the cold front from late this afternoon through late this evening.
The current timing remains on track but will be somewhat dependent
on the frontal timing. An earlier arrival may also signal an
earlier thunderstorm potential. Thunderstorms should be on a
dissipating trend by late evening with lingering showers or
perhaps an isolated thunderstorm overnight. Any stronger storms
that develop will likely produce torrential rainfall with ifr/lifr
cigs/vis. Erratic/gusty winds may also occur from outflow
boundaries.

Guidance has been trending cigs into mvfr overnight into Tuesday
morning with some potential for ifr cigs around sunrise. Mvfr
vis/fog is also possible. Confidence is low but have started the
trend lower. cms

&&

.MARINE...

216 am...A cold front will move south across Lake Michigan today
with winds turning north/northeast behind the front. This front
will move south of the lake this evening and then is expected to
become stationary across the southern Great Lakes and Ohio Valley
through the end of the week with generally northeast or easterly
winds through the end of the week. Periods of thunderstorms will
be possible today and tonight...as they drift south with the
front. Higher wind speeds are possible from outflow boundaries.
Areas of fog are developing over northern portions of the lake
early this morning and these will likely expand through central
portions of the lake today...then begin to improve from north to
south behind the front. cms

&&

.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...Excessive Heat Warning...ILZ014 until 7 PM Monday.

     Heat Advisory...ILZ003-ILZ004-ILZ005-ILZ006-ILZ008-ILZ010-ILZ011-
     ILZ012-ILZ013-ILZ019-ILZ020-ILZ021-ILZ022-ILZ023-ILZ032-
     ILZ033-ILZ039 until 7 PM Monday.

IN...Heat Advisory...INZ001-INZ002-INZ010-INZ011-INZ019 until 7 PM
     Monday.

LM...None.
&&

$$

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NWS LOT Office Area Forecast Discussion