Peotone Weather

National Weather Service Forecast for: 2 Miles SE Peotone, IL Issued by: National Weather Service Chicago/Romeoville, IL

Updated: Sat, 27-Jul-2024 1:57am CDT

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Peotone, IL

Saturday Sunny Sunday Showers And T-Storms Likely Monday Chance Showers And T-Storms Tuesday Chance Showers And T-Storms Wednesday Chance Showers And T-Storms Thursday Chance Showers And T-Storms Friday Chance Showers And T-Storms   Hi 84 °F Hi 80 °F Hi 85 °F Hi 87 °F Hi 90 °F Hi 89 °F Hi 87 °F   Overnight Clear Saturday Night Mostly Cloudy Sunday Night Showers And T-Storms Likely Monday Night Chance Showers And T-Storms Tuesday Night Chance Showers And T-Storms Wednesday Night Chance Showers And T-Storms Thursday Night Chance Showers And T-Storms   Lo 59 °F Lo 64 °F Lo 68 °F Lo 69 °F Lo 69 °F Lo 70 °F Lo 69 °F

Forecast from NOAA-NWS for 2 Miles SE Peotone, IL.

375
FXUS63 KLOT 270712
AFDLOT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Chicago/Romeoville, IL
212 AM CDT Sat Jul 27 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Very warm to hot, humid, and at times stormy pattern returning
  Sunday into next week. A few strong storms possible, mainly
  Monday evening.

- Additional thunderstorm chances exist, particularly Wednesday
  into the end of the week as an active weather pattern
  develops.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 212 AM CDT Sat Jul 27 2024

Through Sunday:

Today will be dry with seasonable high temps in the lower/mid
80s. A lake breeze is expected to move inland across northeast
IL with cooler temps there.

Increasing clouds are expected late this afternoon into tonight
ahead of an upper level low that will move across the area on
Sunday. Models seem in fair agreement with a chance of showers
in the southwest quarter or so of the cwa in the predawn hours
Sunday morning and the coverage is expected to increase Sunday
morning. Best coverage may be along/south of a Rockford to
Aurora to Watseka line. Thunder coverage looks rather low for
Sunday and maintained slight chance in the morning and chance in
the afternoon. Though increased pops to likely for the entire
area. Main threat on Sunday will be slow moving cells producing
heavy rain with a low potential for localized flooding. Could
also be the potential for a few funnel clouds on Sunday.

With the expected shower coverage and mostly cloudy skies,
lowered high temps for Sunday. Temps still a bit tricky as any
several hour break in the precip with partly cloudy skies may
allow temps to jump well into the 80s. But for now have lowered
highs into the upper 70s to around 80. Dewpoints will steadily
increase into the lower 70s Sunday, allowing for more humid
conditions. cms

Sunday Night through Friday:

Lingering showers and storms should tend to diurnally diminish
through Sunday evening, although a still relatively moist airmass
with several mid-level perturbations overhead may keep some shower
activity going on a spotty basis. Towards daybreak on Monday, most
extended hires guidance suggests a decaying thunderstorm complex
may be marching eastward across Iowa and towards the Mississippi
River. Mid and upper-level flow looks to weaken considerably with
eastward extent, and with the main core of the EML plume still
well to our south and west, any activity that maintains into our
forecast area should be predominantly behind any outflow,
elevated, and weakening.

Through the day on Monday, west to southwesterly lower-
tropospheric flow will begin to push the eastern fringes of a more
conditionally unstable airmass our way, with 700-500 mb lapse
rates incrementally steepening with time. Depending on how any
lingering morning convective activity evolves, it`s possible that
debris cloud cover blunts insolation to some degree which would
also cut down on afternoon instability a bit. Still, with
temperatures expected to warm into the mid and upper 80s amidst
lower 70s dewpoints, MLCIN is largely forecast to erode through
the day. Model guidance suggests warm air advection will increase
Monday evening in response to an intensifying southwesterly low-
level jet across northern Missouri and central Illinois while a
weak surface low/reflection scoots eastward into Wisconsin. The
past few runs of the ECMWF have consistently tried to resolve a
forward-propagating MCS initiating to our north and dropping south
to southeastward down the instability gradient Monday evening and
overnight. With an improved thermodynamic and kinematic
environment compared to Sunday, this is one possibility we`ll have
to monitor, although--as is typical with these scenarios--
predictability is extremely low. If this were to materialize, some
strong-severe weather threat would exist.

Most guidance continues to push a cold front/composite outflow
boundary through much or all of our forecast area through Tuesday
which would largely limit additional shower and thunderstorm
chances. This period was still a bit too far out to justify
cutting inherited blended PoPs, but if trends continue, this
may be supported. Moisture pooling immediately around this
boundary could yield locally increased dewpoints in the mid to
upper 70s, but at this time, it looks like the highest dewpoints
may focus immediately south of the CWA, with the latest peak
heat indices generally in the mid to upper 90s in our forecast
area.

At some point towards the middle of the week, this effective
boundary should meander back northward as a warm front. Increased
dewpoints will be overtopped by a plume of greatly-steepened mid-
level lapse rates during this timeframe, resulting in a renewed
threat for additional MCS advances into/towards our region. The
Wednesday/Thursday period continues to look a bit more interesting
in this regard, as a belt of faster northwesterly 500 mb flow sets
up. Given the synoptic scale setup, any MCS activity would carry
an attendant severe weather threat, as well as a potential for
heavy rain and flash flooding given a supportive NW-SE orientation
along the frontal zone. If Monday evening`s predictability is low,
confidence during this time frame is even lower, though. We`ll
continue to keep an eye on this time period, with the active
stretch possibly continuing into the upcoming weekend.

Carlaw

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1215 AM CDT Sat Jul 27 2024

The only aviation weather concern is the potential for a lake
breeze at the Chicago-area terminals. Winds will veer to the
south through the morning hours today, and may intermittently
become SSW at times. A lake breeze will develop during the
afternoon. There are some indications this may have trouble
making it to ORD, but have retained the ESE wind shift for the
time being.

Precipitation chances will increase on Sunday morning, just
outside the current extended TAF window.

Carlaw

&&

.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
IN...None.
LM...None.

&&

$$

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