Peotone Weather
National Weather Service Forecast for: 2 Miles SE Peotone, IL
Issued by: National Weather Service Chicago/Romeoville, IL
Updated: Wed, 18-May-2022 1:15pm CDT

Peotone, IL
 
This
Afternoon
This Afternoon: Scattered Showers And Thunderstorms
Scattered Showers And T-Storms
Thursday

Thursday: Mostly Sunny
Mostly Sunny
Friday

Friday: Chance Showers And Thunderstorms
Chance Showers And T-Storms
Saturday

Saturday: Showers And Thunderstorms Likely
Showers And T-Storms Likely
Sunday

Sunday: Chance Rain Showers then Mostly Sunny
Chance Rain Showers then Mostly Sunny
Monday

Monday: Mostly Sunny
Mostly Sunny
Tuesday

Tuesday: Chance Rain Showers
Chance Rain Showers
 
Hi 67 °F Hi 83 °F Hi 86 °F Hi 64 °F Hi 62 °F Hi 65 °F Hi 69 °F  
 
Tonight

Tonight: Slight Chance Showers And Thunderstorms then Mostly Cloudy
Slight Chance Showers And T-Storms then Mostly Cloudy
Thursday
Night
Thursday Night: Partly Cloudy then Slight Chance Showers And Thunderstorms
Partly Cloudy then Slight Chance Showers And T-Storms
Friday
Night
Friday Night: Chance Showers And Thunderstorms then Showers And Thunderstorms Likely
Chance Showers And T-Storms then Showers And T-Storms Likely
Saturday
Night
Saturday Night: Rain Showers Likely
Rain Showers Likely
Sunday
Night
Sunday Night: Mostly Clear
Mostly Clear
Monday
Night
Monday Night: Chance Rain Showers
Chance Rain Showers
Tuesday
Night
Tuesday Night: Chance Rain Showers
Chance Rain Showers
 
Lo 54 °F Lo 67 °F Lo 56 °F Lo 46 °F Lo 43 °F Lo 49 °F Lo 54 °F  

 

This Afternoon
 
A chance of rain showers before 3pm, then scattered showers and thunderstorms. Cloudy, with a high near 67. South wind 5 to 10 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%. New rainfall amounts less than a tenth of an inch possible.
Tonight
 
A slight chance of showers and thunderstorms before 8pm. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 54. West northwest wind 5 to 10 mph. Chance of precipitation is 20%. New rainfall amounts less than a tenth of an inch possible.
Thursday
 
Mostly sunny, with a high near 83. Southwest wind 5 to 15 mph, with gusts as high as 25 mph.
Thursday Night
 
A slight chance of showers and thunderstorms after 1am. Partly cloudy, with a low around 67. South wind around 15 mph, with gusts as high as 25 mph. Chance of precipitation is 20%.
Friday
 
A chance of showers and thunderstorms. Partly sunny, with a high near 86. South southwest wind 15 to 20 mph, with gusts as high as 30 mph. Chance of precipitation is 40%.
Friday Night
 
A chance of showers and thunderstorms before 7pm, then showers and thunderstorms likely. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 56. Chance of precipitation is 70%.
Saturday
 
Showers and thunderstorms likely. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 64. Chance of precipitation is 70%.
Saturday Night
 
Rain showers likely. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 46.
Sunday
 
A chance of rain showers before 7am. Mostly sunny, with a high near 62.
Sunday Night
 
Mostly clear, with a low around 43.
Monday
 
Mostly sunny, with a high near 65.
Monday Night
 
A chance of rain showers after 7pm. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 49.
Tuesday
 
A chance of rain showers. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 69.
Tuesday Night
 
A chance of rain showers. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 54.

 

Forecast from NOAA-NWS for 2 Miles SE Peotone, IL.

000
FXUS63 KLOT 181740
AFDLOT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Chicago/Romeoville, IL
1240 PM CDT Wed May 18 2022

.SHORT TERM...
Issued at 339 AM CDT Wed May 18 2022

Through Thursday...

While we`re seeing scattered light showers pop up across the area
early this morning, most of the rain falling aloft is evaporating
prior to reaching the ground with fair dewpoint depressions through
the first 1km AGL or so. Rain will continue to struggle making it
through this dry air until right around sunrise when the warm front
begins to propagate northward through the CWA and steady low level
moisture advection kicks in. By mid-morning when the layer has been
alloted sufficient time to saturate is when we`ll likely begin
seeing some more moderate showers push through. The uptick in
rainfall intensity will also be accredited in part to added forcing
along the advancing boundary which could also result in a few
embedded thunderstorms, primarily along and south of I-80 where
we`ll be able to tap into a couple hundred joules of CAPE a little
deeper into the warm sector. Scattered to widespread showers are
expected from the late morning through the mid-afternoon before
pushing off the east following the passage of the low pressure
center. A few light straggling showers could linger into the late
afternoon/early evening.

Despite this warm frontal passage, temperatures today won`t
be getting all that warm given the warm air mass behind the front is
not all that warm. Although the southwestern CWA sure will feel a
lot nicer than the northern CWA where there`s not nearly as much
residence time in the warm sector. Low to mid 60`s can be expected
this afternoon in the far northern CWA and across areas near the
IL lakeshore while low to mid 70`s are forecast along and south of
I-80. As you probably guessed, we won`t be seeing much of the sun
today. But, skies will clear up at a pretty decent pace this
evening with a good deal of dry air advancing behind the system,
especially in the mid and upper levels. The clearing skies will
help Thursday morning lows drop into the 50`s area-wide. However,
a good deal of sunshine, at least through the morning, and plenty
of surface warm air advection will bring summer-like temperatures
back to the CWA for Thursday afternoon. Low to mid 80`s can be
expected across just about the whole area. This warm air advection
will be driven by a tightening pressure gradient ahead of another
approaching low pressure center bringing warm, breezy southerly
winds to the area. At their peak Thursday afternoon and early
evening, winds will regularly gust between 20 and 25 mph. Small
price to pay for a dry, summer-like day, especially when such
conditions will be short-lived with cold front likely to bring an
end to summer-like conditions later Friday.

Doom

&&

.LONG TERM...
Issued at 339 AM CDT Wed May 18 2022

Thursday night through Tuesday...

Some fairly meaningful difference in model guidance Thursday night
through Saturday is leading to lower than average forecast
confidence.

Will start with where models are in agreement, which is in taking
a vigorous shortwave trough along the North Dakota/Canadian
border Thursday night and shearing it eastward Friday as it
becomes absorbed by large Hudson Bay long wave trough. Associated
seasonably deep sfc low is progged to track from northwest North
Dakota Thursday evening to near James Bay Friday evening with
trailing northwest-southeast oriented cold front moving south
across the region Friday into Friday night.

Strong southwest winds ahead of the front will result in very
warm/hot conditions with moderate humidity as a plume of mid to
perhaps upper 60 dewpoints are drawn north into the region in
advance of the front. One of the more glaring discrepancies in
model guidance is with how quickly the front drops southeast
across the area. The GFS is the fast outlier, nearly 150 miles
farther southeast than the GEM/ECMWF and about 100 miles faster
than the NAM. Given the shortwave will be lifting northeast away
from the region, am leaning toward the slower GEM/ECMWF solution.

Leaning toward the slower guidance suite, have raised temps
considerably Friday, with highs now forecast to be well into the
80s. If the slower solutions pan out, temps will likely be even
warmer still with near 90/lower 90s looking pretty likely. Ahead
of the front, southwest winds could gust to 40 mph, which given
the faster GFS solution the blended model guidance is somewhat
muted with the wind speeds. If GFS comes into agreement with the
slower solutions, wind speeds will need to be increased
considerably Friday.

Precip forecast is equally, if not more tricky than temps.
Thursday night, an MCS is likely to organize over the upper
Mississippi Valley and track east into Wisconsin, fed by 40-50kt
low level jet. Most likely scenario appears to be this MCS staying
mainly north of the IL/WI border, but maintained chance pops
across far northern IL due to the proximity of the MCS and
potential for some southward propagation.

Good model agreement that a stout elevated mixed layer (EML) will
advect east into the region Friday. Strong inversion at the base
of this EML should result in significant convective inhibition.
Large scale ascent looks neutral to negative with departing
shortwave trough and rising heights in its wake. Given the lack of
large scale ascent, it seems pretty doubtful that frontal
convergence alone will be able to break through the cap, unless
temps significantly overperform Friday. Given the very steep
mid level lapse rates and warm air advection regime, it`s not out
of the realm of possibility that there could be some highly
elevated weak convection even during the daytime sprouting from
an ACCAS field. While not the most probable scenario, it would be
one which could keep temps a bit in check if it were to happen.

The operational run of the ECMWF shows sufficient lift/heating to
weaken the cap and allow for boundary layer based convection
along the front during the afternoon. The operational ECMWF
actually has support from a significant number of its ensemble
members, which makes it hard to totally discount. Should boundary
layer based convection develop ahead of the front, instability and
shear profiles would be quite supportive of severe weather, so it
is something that will bear watching. Wasn`t confident enough to
lower pops from the mid-high end chance range Friday given the
ECMWF, but gut instinct is that we won`t see prefrontal boundary
layer rooted storms.

Blended model pops are in the likely range Friday night into
Saturday and opted to not make changes, though am not very
confident that we will indeed see precip. The GEM/ECMWF seem to be
keying in subtle southern stream shortwave and ascent in the right
entrance region of upper level jet interacting with the nearby
instability. With low level jet and warm air advection well to
our east, there certainly are reasons to question this widespread
precip solution. Given the low confidence, opted to leave the
likely precip chances in the grids.

Saturday into early next week, a seasonably cool air mass and
winds off the lake should keep temps mostly in the 60s for highs
with a break in the precip Sat night through at least Monday.

- Izzi

&&

.AVIATION...
For the 18Z TAFs...

Low pressure will track along a stationary front just south of
the Chicago terminals late this afternoon. Scattered -SHRA will
gradually diminish in coverage during this time. IFR ceilings have
rapidly developed early this afternoon in response to the
approaching low, diurnal heating, and added low-level moisture
from earlier SHRA. These ceilings are expected to persist through
the afternoon before gradually scattering and lifting early to
mid- evening behind the low pressure. Beyond this evening, VFR
conditions are expected.

ENE winds under 10 knots will gradually back from ENE to NNE
through the afternoon, then shift NNW around 23-00Z as the low
passes south of the terminals. Winds may become VRB for a period
21-00Z given the proximity of the low to the terminals,
particularly for MDW/GYY. Winds will continue backing SW through
the night, settling SW by daybreak Thursday. Some gusts in excess
of 20 knots are likely Thursday afternoon.

Kluber

&&

.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
IN...None.
LM...None.
&&

$$

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